Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 3.259871 3.914657 4.647446 5.525403 6.545629 7.690634 9.069647
2025-05-11 2.303462 3.129056 4.152807 5.503586 7.225455 9.332223 12.088304
2025-05-18 1.652099 2.500699 3.650499 5.296116 7.559730 10.528451 14.673526
2025-05-25 1.209828 2.020367 3.209289 5.036577 7.719784 11.450671 16.948694
2025-06-01 0.959520 1.748461 2.989020 5.016166 8.161746 12.753383 19.825937
2025-06-08 0.785776 1.551663 2.834609 5.049191 8.656868 14.150285 22.939720
2025-06-15 0.643991 1.373549 2.671153 5.028711 9.045172 15.400645 25.923430
2025-06-22 0.501250 1.158108 2.400512 4.777666 9.012427 15.972026 27.886640
2025-06-29 0.416834 1.035478 2.271895 4.748280 9.335067 17.123766 30.844552
2025-07-06 0.348302 0.928832 2.152626 4.713173 9.633583 18.248289 33.832296
2025-07-13 0.322538 0.911379 2.207350 5.015205 10.570155 20.531947 38.929271
2025-07-20 0.288910 0.867110 2.197549 5.184735 11.271225 22.452694 43.533641
2025-07-27 0.263841 0.839965 2.223989 5.439570 12.177514 24.840687 49.182490
2025-08-03 0.223856 0.763240 2.124880 5.414056 12.527518 26.241595 53.178762
2025-08-10 0.180837 0.665171 1.956007 5.208225 12.483785 26.895208 55.854226
2025-08-17 0.143518 0.571569 1.778248 4.952041 12.299192 27.252735 57.990567
2025-08-24 0.122478 0.522467 1.705399 4.931781 12.617338 28.615820 62.122710
2025-08-31 0.106518 0.485243 1.657226 4.964266 13.053860 30.246626 66.878145
2025-09-07 0.091242 0.445088 1.592418 4.944070 13.365848 31.641864 71.255360
2025-09-14 0.072338 0.383414 1.450087 4.696742 13.115893 31.835989 73.227618
2025-09-21 0.061800 0.351382 1.391809 4.667791 13.384942 33.154580 77.575880
2025-09-28 0.052723 0.321819 1.334810 4.633207 13.635008 34.447690 81.949112
2025-10-05 0.050867 0.325217 1.389610 4.930755 14.752219 37.739405 90.724302